Crucial swing state: Georgia
Despite her recent narrow lead, Harris’s position remains uncertain, particularly in Georgia. Goldman Sachs analysts believe Georgia, with its 16 electoral votes, is the key state that could decide the election. They noted that Harris could win the presidency by securing either Georgia or Pennsylvania. In contrast, Trump would need to win both states to secure victory. This makes Georgia’s role in the election critical under Goldman’s assumptions.
Shifting polls
Goldman Sachs analysts, Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa, observed that after Harris’s surge in August, Trump has been making slight gains nationally and in Georgia. The polling averages in swing states have shifted significantly, making it unclear which state might deliver the winning electoral vote. Seven states, with a combined 100 electoral votes, are currently within a 2 percentage point margin, indicating an extremely close race.
Prediction markets and polls
Prediction markets, which reflect betting activity rather than voter surveys, show Trump narrowly pulling ahead for the first time since July. This contrasts with some polls, including a New York Times/Siena poll, which found Harris leading in swing states Georgia and North Carolina. Polling expert Nate Silver also showed Trump edging out Harris in Georgia by a mere 0.2%.
The presidential contest is highly unpredictable, but congressional elections seem more certain. Republicans have a 74% likelihood of taking control of the Senate, while Democrats have a 62% chance of winning the House, according to Goldman Sachs’ survey of prediction markets. According to this scenario, the Republicans are likely to sweep both the Senate and the White House.
FAQs
What did Goldman Sachs analysts say about polling trends?
Goldman Sachs analysts noted that after Harris’s surge in August, Trump made slight gains in national polls and Georgia. However, swing state polling averages remain extremely close, leaving the outcome uncertain.Why is Georgia important in the 2024 presidential election?
Georgia’s 16 electoral votes could decide the election. According to Goldman Sachs, Harris only needs Georgia or Pennsylvania to win, while Trump must secure both to claim victory.
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